OpenCongress Blog

Democratic 'Supermajority' is Back on the Table

January 29, 2009 - by Donny Shaw

Roll Call is reporting that President Obama is thinking about naming Republican Senator Judd Gregg (NH) to serve as his Secretary of Commerce. Sam Stein, the Huffington Post’s D.C. reporter, is calling it a “strong possibility.”

Here’s why this is a potentially big deal: if Gregg accepts the job, New Hampshire Governor John Lynch, a Democrat, would appoint Gregg’s replacement, giving Senate Democrats the 60-seat majority they have been hoping for (assuming Al Franken is seated in Minnesota). Sixty is the number of votes that are needed to overcome cloture, a parliamentary motion that is often used by the minority party to block majority-party legislation.

It would mean that the Democrats would be in a position to push virtually anything they wanted through Congress this session, as long no one in their party defects in the Senate.

Expect a heavy push from the right telling Gregg to turn the offer down.

And related: check out this excellent analysis from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEighty showing which GOP Senators have been voting with Obama the most this session. I was shocked to see Gregg as #2 on the list.

UPDATE: Kagro X at Congress Matters has a more detailed breakdown of Gregg’s votes so far this session.

 

Dems Will Not Get 60 in the Senate

February 2, 2009 - by Donny Shaw

A few days ago, the Democrats’ all-but-forgotten dream of a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate was suddenly renewed by rumors that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was under consideration to be Obama’s Secretary of Commerce. New Hampshire’s Governor, John Lynch, is a Democrat, so the immediate assumption was that he would appoint a Democrat to fill Gregg’s Senate seat. Usually when there’s a vacancy in the Senate to be filled by gubernatorial appointment, governors choose someone from their own party to fill it, regardless of which party the vacating senator belonged to.

But a statement released today by Gov. Lynch puts Democrats’ dream for the Senate back to rest (h/t Ambinder):

>We are in the midst of a national economic crisis, and it calls for cooperation on all of our parts. We all need to work together to do what is in the best interest of our country and our state.
>
>I have had conversations with Senator Gregg, the White House and U.S. Senate leadership. Senator Gregg has said he would not resign his seat in the U.S. Senate if it changed the balance in the Senate. Based on my discussions, it is clear the White House and Senate leadership understand this as well.
>
>It is important that President Obama be able to select the advisors he feels are necessary to help him address the challenges facing our nation.
>
>If President Obama does nominate Senator Gregg to serve as Commerce Secretary, I will name a replacement who will put the people of New Hampshire first and represent New Hampshire effectively in the U.S. Senate."

He doesn’t come out and say it directly, but it’s pretty clear… Obama wants Gregg, Gregg requires a Republican replacement, therefore Lynch will appoint a Republican so that Obama can get what he wants.

Reports indicate that the current front-runner for Gregg’s seat is Bonnie Newman, a moderate Republican who worked for Gregg in the 80’s and endorsed Gov. Lynch in 2004, co-chairing Republicans for Lynch. First Read suggests that she may not run again in 2010 if she is given the position.

Now that a 60-Democrat 111th Senate is off the table, will Obama still pick Gregg? If so, why?

 

Not Helping the Dems Any

February 4, 2009 - by Donny Shaw

The stimulus package is losing steam in the Senate, and making matters worse for Obama and congressional Democrats, the 2nd-most reliable cross-over Republican has announced that he won’t be placing a vote on the bill. Elana Schor at TPM reports:

>Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), the president’s pick for Commerce Secretary, just revealed during an interview with CNBC that he would recuse himself from congressional votes while his nomination is being considered by his former Senate colleagues.

UPDATE: Here’s the kicker: Gregg seems to support the stimulus.

Since he’s already acting as if he’s no longer a Senator, will he work on behalf of the Administration to win votes from his (former) colleagues?

 

Gregg Withdraws - Back to the Senate

February 12, 2009 - by Donny Shaw

New Hampshire Republican Sen. Judd Gregg has withdrawn his name from consideration for Secretary of Commerce in the Obama administration and will return to his seat in the Senate.

CNN has his full statement here.

This is yet another negative mark on President Obama’s record in selecting cabinet members. Talking Points Memo quotes a Dem staffer speculating that Gregg’s announcement, with Obama on stage in Peoria, IL to promote his increasingly-popular stimulus package, was “timed to cause the most damage possible to the Obama administration.”

Gregg had recused himself from voting on the stimulus package and amendments, but on the first seven nontrivial votes of the 111th Congress (Ledbetter Fair Pay, Omnibus Lands Bill, TARP II), Gregg voted with the Obama administration more often than all Republicans except Olympia Snowe (R-ME).

UPDATE: And here is the White House statement:

>"Senator Gregg reached out to the President and offered his name for Secretary of Commerce. He was very clear throughout the interviewing process that despite past disagreements about policies, he would support, embrace, and move forward with the President’s agenda. Once it became clear after his nomination that Senator Gregg was not going to be supporting some of President Obama’s key economic priorities, it became necessary for Senator Gregg and the Obama administration to part ways. We regret that he has had a change of heart."

Also, the NH UnionLeader reports that Gregg will not run again in 2010. Gregg would have faced a difficult re-election in an increasingly blue state. His decision not to run again will probably mean that he’ll vote as more of a party-line Republican this session than his early-111th voting record indicates.

 

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